Outcome markets let traders price a specific future result instead of trading continuous exposure to an asset. A BTC perpetual asks, "What is BTC worth right now?" An outcome market can ask, "Will BTC be above a specific level at a specific time?"
Hyperliquid now supports outcome markets inside the official trading app. Hyperhub lists active outcome markets in /markets?tab=outcome and shows asset-specific outcomes inline on subject pages such as /markets/BTC. Trade actions still go to the official Hyperliquid trading page.
What an outcome market is
An outcome market is a tradable contract tied to a defined question and a resolution rule. The market has:
- A question — the event being priced, such as whether an asset will finish above a threshold.
- A set of possible outcomes — usually YES/NO, or several mutually exclusive buckets.
- A resolution time — when the event is checked.
- A settlement source — the price, oracle, or rule used to decide the result.
The price represents the market's implied probability after fees and liquidity are considered. A YES contract trading near 0.54 is roughly saying the market prices the event near 54%.
Binary vs multi-outcome
The simplest structure is binary. There are two possible end states:
| Shape | Example | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Binary | BTC above 80,000 at 14:00 UTC? | YES price is the market's implied chance that BTC settles above the level. |
| Multi-outcome | BTC closes below 79,000, between 79,000 and 82,000, or above 82,000 | Each bucket has its own price, and the buckets compete for probability share. |
Binary markets are easier to scan because one number tells the story. Multi-outcome markets are more expressive: traders can isolate ranges instead of making one above-or-below bet.
Resolution and settlement
Outcome markets are discontinuous. A perp keeps trading indefinitely and uses funding to stay close to spot. An outcome market resolves against a rule at a specific time, then the winning outcome settles and the losing outcome expires.
Before entering a trade, check:
- The exact question text — small wording changes matter.
- The resolution timestamp — near-expiry markets can move sharply.
- The settlement reference — understand what price or source decides the result.
- Liquidity — thin markets can have wide spreads and noisy implied probabilities.
In a perp, being directionally right can still lose money if timing, funding, or liquidation goes against you. In an outcome market, the final rule decides the contract. Read the rule, not just the chart.
Outcome markets vs perps
Both products can express a view on the same underlying asset, but they are built for different jobs.
| Dimension | Perpetual futures | Outcome markets |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure | Continuous long or short exposure | Discrete event exposure |
| Time horizon | No expiry | Fixed resolution time |
| Key metric | Price, funding, open interest | Implied chance, volume, open interest |
| Carry cost | Funding payments | No ongoing funding mechanism |
| Main risk | Liquidation and mark price movement | Event wording, resolution, liquidity, and expiry timing |
| Best for | Directional trades, hedges, leverage | Event-specific views and defined-time catalysts |
If you want broad BTC exposure with leverage, a perp is usually the direct tool. If you want to trade a specific question about BTC at a specific time, an outcome market is more precise.
How Hyperhub integrates outcomes
The first Hyperhub integration is intentionally conservative:
- The
/markets?tab=outcometab lists active, unresolved outcome markets when Hyperliquid metadata is available. - If the official metadata request fails or returns an unrecognized schema, Hyperhub falls back to a direct Hyperliquid link instead of showing stale rows.
- Outcome rows will not get Hyperhub drill-down pages in the first version.
- Outcome rows link out to the official Hyperliquid trading page.
- Subject pages show active outcome markets about an asset, but outcomes stay separate from spot and perp tables.
That separation matters. A BTC spot market is a market of BTC. A BTC perp is another market of BTC. An outcome about whether BTC is above a level is a market about BTC, so Hyperhub will keep it in its own section.
Outcome markets are live on Hyperliquid. Hyperhub shows active listings when official metadata is available and hides markets after their resolution time.
Before trading
Outcome markets are simple to understand at the headline level, but the details decide the trade. Read the question, inspect the resolution time, compare bid and ask depth, and make sure the payout structure matches the view you want to express.